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Thursday, February 16, 2006

Has "Peak Oil" transitioned from prediction to recorded history?

Deffeyes reckons it has:
That's it. I can now refer to the world oil peak in the past tense. My career as a prophet is over. I'm now an historian.
His estimation procedure puts total world oil reserves at 2.013 trillion barrels and the peak therefore at 1.0065 trillion barrels, which through interpolation of Oil & Gas Journal's end-of-year production numbers he puts at 16-Dec-2005.

I still maintain that it is unlikely that an accurate view of the world's total reserves is likely to be available at the moment of the peak, and indeed, not until years (or perhaps decades) later and that, therefore, the best that can be done in the interim is to identify local maxima in output shortly (weeks, months) after the fact.

(via Cardboard Spaceship)